The polls are rolling in and they are changing the political landscape here.

Another national MRP poll – the most detailed and accurate kind – has put Labour neck and neck with the Tories here. The Ipsos Mori poll released on June 18 has predicted that if the election were held tomorrow, Craig Williams would either win by less than one percent of the vote, or be narrowly defeated by a similar margin.

We know that every candidate has their own claim to why they can best challenge the Conservatives in Montgomeryshire. But they tend to ignore the fact that we are no longer Montgomeryshire, we are a new constituency, Montgomeryshire and Glyndŵr.

13 south and west Wrexham wards, Labour heartlands, have been added to create our new constituency, the vast majority of which are expected to overwhelmingly support Labour in two weeks’ time.

The political landscape here has changed, with the Liberal Democrat vote share in Montgomeryshire having dropped at every single general election since 2010. Meanwhile, Labour’s vote share has grown, and with the new boundaries we have now become the only alternative to the Tories.

We strongly encourage you not to take our word for it. Please look at every single independent, professional poll since they started accounting for the new constituency boundaries – be it Survation, YouGov, MoreInCommon, or Electoral Calculus. They all predict either a Labour victory or a Conservative one. Organisations that make it their business to recommend how best to vote if your main aim is to remove the Tories from government have adjusted accordingly – all four major tactical voting websites (tactical.vote, Get Voting, StopTheTories, Tactical Vote) are backing Labour to beat the Tories here.

We have an energetic, honest, and local candidate in Steve Witherden. He is a teacher and a trade unionist, not a professional politician and he is working hard for every vote. He will not take your vote for granted. If elected, he will fight to hold water companies to account and protect our countryside. He will attract green investment so we can continue to do our part to tackle the climate crisis. And he will be a loud voice in Westminster for fairer funding for Wales, including the HS2 £5bn owed by the UK Government.

If you want change, if you want a new MP, if you want to get rid of the Conservatives in this constituency – then please look at the evidence and give your vote to Steve Witherden on July 4th.

Montgomeryshire and Glyndŵr deserves a fresh start.

Rhy agos i alw rhwng y Torïaid a Llafur yn Sir Drefaldwyn a Glyndŵr

Mae’r polau yn newid y tirwedd wleidyddol yma.

Mae pôl MRP cenedlaethol arall – y math mwyaf manwl a chywir – wedi dangos ei fod yn rhy agos i alw rhwng Llafur a’r Torïaid. Mae arolwg barn Ipsos Mori, a ryddhawyd ar Fehefin 18, wedi rhagweld pe bai’r etholiad yn cael ei gynnal yfory, byddai Craig Williams, naill ai’n ennill o llai nag un y cant, neu’n cael ei drechu o llai nag un y cant.

Gwyddom fod gan bob ymgeisydd ei honiad ei hun ynghylch pam mai nhw yw’r gorau i herio’r Ceidwadwyr yn Sir Drefaldwyn. Ond maent yn tueddu i anwybyddu’r ffaith nad ydym ni bellach yn Sir Drefaldwyn, rydym yn etholaeth newydd, sef Sir Drefaldwyn a Glyndŵr.

Mae 13 o wardiau yn Ne ac Orllewin Wrecsam, cadarnleoedd Llafur, wedi’u hychwanegu i greu ein hetholaeth newydd, a disgwylir i’r mwyafrif helaeth ohonynt gefnogi Llafur ymhen pythefnos.

Mae’r dirwedd wleidyddol yma wedi newid, gyda chyfran pleidlais y Democratiaid Rhyddfrydol yn Sir Drefaldwyn wedi gostwng ym mhob un etholiad cyffredinol
ers 2010. Yn y cyfamser, mae cyfran pleidlais Llafur wedi tyfu, a gyda’r ffiniau newydd, ni yw’r unig dewis i herio’r Torïaid.

Rydym yn eich annog yn gryf i edrych ar bob pôl piniwn annibynnol, proffesiynol ers iddynt ddechrau cyfrif am y ffiniau etholaethol newydd – boed yn Survation, YouGov, MoreInCommon, neu Electoral Calculus. Mae nhw i gyd yn rhagweld naill ai buddugoliaeth Lafur neu Ceidwadol. Mae sefydliadau sy’n argymell y ffordd orau o bleidleisio, os mai cael gwared o’r Torïaid yw eich prif nod, wedi addasu i ddangos hyn- mae pob un o’r pedair wefan bleidleisio dactegol (tactical.vote, Get Voting, StopTheTories, Tactical Vote) yn credu gall Llafur guro’r Torïaid yma.

Mae gennym ymgeisydd egnïol, gonest, a lleol yn Steve Witherden. Athro ac undebwr llafur ydyw, nid gwleidydd proffesiynol ac mae’n gweithio’n galed am bob pleidlais. Ni fydd yn cymryd eich pleidlais yn ganiataol. Os caiff ei ethol, bydd yn ymladd i ddal cwmnïau dŵr i gyfrif ac amddiffyn ein cefn gwlad. Bydd yn denu buddsoddiad gwyrdd fel y gallwn barhau i wneud ein rhan i fynd i’r afael â’r argyfwng hinsawdd. A bydd yn llais gadarn yn San Steffan dros gyllid tecach i Gymru, gan gynnwys yr HS2 £5bn sy’n ddyledus gan Lywodraeth y DU.

Os ydych chi eisiau newid, os ydych chi eisiau AS newydd, os ydych am gael gwared ar y Ceidwadwyr yn yr etholaeth hon – yna edrychwch ar y dystiolaeth a rhowch eich pleidlais i Steve Witherden ar Orffennaf 4ydd.

Mae Sir Drefaldwyn a Glyndŵr yn haeddu dechrau newydd.